More than seven months after the October 7 terrorist attacks, the Israeli war in Gaza grinds on, with no clear end in sight. The war’s most likely near-term outcomes are a continuing humanitarian crisis in Gaza and possibly a wider war in the Middle East. An end to the war and efforts to remedy the suffering in Gaza are better, if less likely, outcomes.
War in Gaza
The immediate cause of the war was the October 7, 2023, attack on Israel from the Gaza Strip led by the Palestinian militant group Hamas. The attackers killed people indiscriminately in southern Israel.[1] An estimate made in February 2024 placed the resulting number of dead at 1,163 people, 767 of them civilians.[2] The victims included children ages six and under, with the youngest being a baby girl whose pregnant mother had been shot while in labor.[3]
Hamas also took over 250 people hostage. More than 100 hostages were released in November; perhaps roughly another 100 are still alive and being held by Hamas.[4]
Israel responded with a bombing campaign against Gaza followed by a ground invasion of both northern and southern Gaza.[5] Aimed at defeating Hamas, this military campaign has had a devastating effect on Gaza’s people.[6]
Hundreds of thousands of Palestinians have fled their homes to escape the fighting. The UN Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East (UNRWA) estimates that by October 12, 2023, over 400,000 had been displaced. By March 20, 2024, about 1.7 million had been displaced, with these people now living in or around emergency shelters.[7]
Tens of thousands of refugees are clustered in small areas of southern Gaza, notably the district of Rafah. The United Nations estimates that, in Rafah, over 1 million people “are squeezed into an extremely overcrowded space.”[8]
The World Health Organization (WHO) reports widespread damage to Gaza’s civilian infrastructure, such as hospitals, schools, and water and sanitation facilities. WHO estimates up to 80 percent of civilian infrastructure has been destroyed or severely damaged and will take decades to rebuild.[9]
Food and other humanitarian aid are scarce in Gaza. United Nations’ estimates are that prior to the war, 500 humanitarian aid trucks came into Gaza daily. As of March 2024, 164 aid trucks were arriving daily. The World Food Programme (WFP) says that meeting Gaza’s basic food needs would require at least 300 trucks per day. Carl Skau, WFP’s chief operating officer, comments, “The complicated border controls, combined with the high tensions and desperation inside Gaza, make it nearly impossible for food supplies to reach people in need, particularly in the north.”[10]
Given limited food supplies and the war’s other disruptions, Gaza is now facing famine. The Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC), the global organization responsible for declaring famine situations, said in March that famine could strike northern Gaza by May and central and southern Gaza by July. Roughly half of Gaza’s population could be enduring catastrophic hunger by the summer.[11]
Precisely how many people have been killed in Gaza since the war began is controversial. As of late April, Gaza’s health authorities place the death toll at more than 34,000. Since Hamas runs the health authorities, though, such estimates are open to criticism.[12] Defenders of Israeli policy argue Hamas’ numbers may be false or may not distinguish between civilians and Hamas militants.[13]
Caution is certainly warranted in evaluating Hamas’ figures for those killed in the war. Nevertheless, massive numbers of civilians have undoubtedly been killed in Gaza over the past seven months. A military campaign waged in a very densely populated territory (over 2 million people live in the 25-mile-by-6-mile Gaza Strip), including urban areas such as Gaza City, is inevitably going to lead to many civilian deaths.[14]
Even presupposing dramatic exaggeration by Hamas, if the actual civilian death toll were only a quarter of Hamas’ numbers, that would still mean over 8,000 civilians have been killed. Such numbers are more than 10 times the number of civilians killed in the original October 7 attacks. Such a tally—let alone possibly higher numbers of civilian deaths—points to the terrible human cost of the Israeli campaign, which is unlikely to end soon.
As of this writing, mediators are seeking a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, while the Israeli military is bombing the enclave of Rafah, as an apparent prelude to a ground assault.[15] Martin Griffiths, the U.N. under-secretary-general for humanitarian affairs, has warned that an assault on Rafah would be “nothing short of a tragedy beyond words…a ground invasion would spell even more trauma and death.”[16]
Tamer Al-Burai, who has been sheltering in Rafah with his extended family, told Reuters they had decided to flee the area. “We have women, children, elderly and sick people, who may face problems escaping should the invasion happen suddenly,” Al-Burai said.[17]
War in the Middle East?
Beyond the threat of further bloodshed in Gaza, continuing the military campaign threatens to escalate into a regional war. Early in the conflict, the Gaza war sparked violent exchanges in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, and Yemen between Israel and the United States on the one hand and pro-Palestinian militant groups such as Hezbollah and the Houthis on the other.[18]
In January, a drone strike killed three US soldiers stationed in Jordan.[19] The United States attributed the attack to various militant groups aligned with Iran and responded with air strikes in Iraq and Syria.[20]
The biggest escalation to date came in April. An Israeli air strike on Iran’s consulate in Syria on April 1 killed 13 people, including two generals. (This strike may have been retaliation for a drone attack the same day that Israel attributed to Iran.)[21]
Iran retaliated on April 14 with a massive strike of missiles and drones against Israel. The Israelis, supported by the United States and other nations, successfully shot down most of the Iranian strike, which ultimately caused minimal damage.[22] Israel apparently retaliated April 19 with an air strike on a military base in Iran.[23]
The recent exchange between Israel and Iran seems to have been an exercise in international shadowboxing: the two countries are demonstrating their resolve against each other while doing little actual harm. Nevertheless, two major Middle Eastern powers have now attacked each other. Taken together with the other violent exchanges that have occurred across the Middle East since the Gaza war began, Israel and Iran’s recent round of attacks is very ominous. A regional war involving Israel, Iran, or other nations would be a bloody disaster that could drag in the United States.
How Will It End?
The Gaza war’s human toll and dangers of a wider war are even more disturbing given the vague and discouraging goals the Israeli government is pursuing. In February, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu released a brief statement offering a post-war plan for Gaza. The plan includes Gaza’s demilitarization, Israeli control of the territory’s northern and southern borders, replacing Hamas’ rule with “local elements with administrative experience,” and a “comprehensive de-radicalization program.”[24]
This proposal for essentially indefinite Israeli governance of Gaza is hardly just and does not seem likely to stop armed Palestinian resistance to Israel. Combined with the embittering toll of the war, a re-occupation of Gaza will likely fuel further violence from whatever remains of Hamas, new militant groups, or both.
A better alternative would be an agreement in which Israel, in return for the release of the remaining hostages, ended the current campaign and withdrew from Gaza. The Israelis could establish new security arrangements within Israel, such as a fortified buffer zone around the Gaza Strip, to guard against a repetition of the October 7 attacks. Meanwhile, humanitarian aid should be allowed into Gaza free of wartime disruptions.
The United States, as Israel’s leading supporter, might be able to pressure Israel into accepting such an agreement by making key US aid conditional on its acceptance. Such an outcome is unlikely, given past US support for Israel even amid the Gaza war: the US Congress recently passed, and President Joe Biden signed, a bill providing roughly $14 billion in military aid to Israel.[25] The Biden administration has also continued to transfer weapons such as fighter jets and bombs to Israel.[26]
Nevertheless, US citizens concerned with protecting Gaza’s people can try to influence government policy.
US citizens should contact the Biden administration by phone, at 202-456-1111, or email (https://www.whitehouse.gov/contact/) and contact their representatives in the House (https://www.house.gov/representatives/find-your-representative) and Senate (https://www.senate.gov/senators/senators-contact.htm) to advocate pressure on Israel to end the war and withdraw from Gaza.
Those interested in supporting organizations that help Palestinians in Gaza and elsewhere might consider donating to United Palestinian Appeal (https://act.upaconnect.org/give/293203/), Anera (https://www.anera.org/how-to-help/), and Islamic Relief USA (https://irusa.org/middle-east/palestine/).
A version of this essay originally appeared on the Rehumanize International blog.
Notes
[1] Nir Hasson and Liza Rozovsky, “Hamas Committed Documented Atrocities. But a Few False Stories Feed the Deniers,” Haaretz, December 4, 2023, https://bit.ly/3WyzCRI.
[2] AFP, “New Tally Puts October 7 Attack Dead In Israel At 1,163,” Barrons, February 1, 2024, https://www.barrons.com/news/new-tally-puts-october-7-attack-dead-in-israel-at-1-163-78182279.
[3] AFP, “New Tally”; Hasson and Rozovsky, “Hamas Committed Document Atrocities.”
[4] Dan De Luce, Peter Alexander, Monica Alba and Anna Schecter, “The Number of Hostages Still Alive in Gaza Is a Mystery, Officials Say,” NBC News, April 18, 2024, https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/number-hostages-still-alive-gaza-remains-mystery-officials-say-rcna148294.
[5] BBC, “Gaza Strip in Maps: How Life Has Changed,” March 22, 2024, https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-20415675; Prasanta Kumar Dutta and Jon McClure, “Bombardment in Gaza Intensifies,” Reuters, December 22, 2023, https://www.reuters.com/graphics/ISRAEL-PALESTINIANS/MAPS/movajdladpa/2023-12-22/bombardment-in-gaza-intensifies/.
[6] Israel, Prime Minister’s Office, Remarks by PM Netanyahu, October 9, 2023, https://www.gov.il/en/pages/event-statement091023.
[7] BBC, “Gaza Strip in Maps.”
[8] Ibid.
[9] Ibid.
[10] Ibid.
[11] BBC, “Gaza Strip in Maps”; Aidan Lewis, “Famine Imminent in Northern Gaza, Says UN-Backed Report,” Reuters, March 18, 2024, https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/famine-expected-by-may-gaza-says-un-backed-report-2024-03-18/.
[12] Michelle Nichols, “UN Warns Israel Assault on Gaza’s Rafah on ‘Immediate Horizon,’” Reuters, April 30, 2024, https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/un-chief-says-incremental-progress-toward-averting-gaza-famine-2024-04-30/.
[13] See, for example, Alan Dershowitz, “Israel Has Committed No War Crimes—Hamas Has,” Compact, January 3, 2024, https://www.compactmag.com/article/israel-has-committed-no-war-crimes-hamas-has/; Dan Sagalyn and Zeba Warsi, “Israel’s Ambassador to U.S. Defends IDF’s Mass Roundup of Men and Children in Gaza,” PBS NewsHour, December 27, 2023, https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/israeli-ambassador-to-u-s-discusses-strategy-war-tactics-and-future-of-gaza.
[14] BBC, “Gaza Strip in Maps.”
[15] Nidal Al-Mughrabi and Dan Williams, “Israel Says Rafah Assault Looms; Massive Gaza Airstrikes End Weeks of Relative Calm,” Reuters, April 25, 2024, https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/some-palestinians-forced-flee-homes-israel-pounds-northern-gaza-2024-04-24/; Nichols, “UN Warns Israel Assault on Gaza’s Rafah on ‘Immediate Horizon’”; Mohammed Salem, Nidal Al-Mughrabi and Ari Rabinovitch, “Gaza Ceasefire Uncertain, Israel Vows to Continue Rafah Operation,” Reuters, May 7, 2024, https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/wrapup1-israel-begins-evacuating-part-rafah-ahead-threatened-assault-2024-05-06/.
[16] Lisa Schlein, “UN Sets Contingency Plans in Case of Israeli Assault on Rafah,” Voice of America, May 3, 2024, https://www.voanews.com/a/un-sets-contingency-plans-in-case-of-israeli-assault-on-rafah/7597297.html.
[17] Al-Mughrabi and Williams, “Israel Says Rafah Assault Looms.”
[18] See “Ripples from Gaza: The Threat of a Wider Middle East War.”
[19] Zeke Miller and Lolita C. Baldor, “Biden Says US ‘Shall Respond’ after Drone Strike by Iran-Backed Group Kills 3 US Troops in Jordan,” Associated Press, January 29, 2024, https://apnews.com/article/biden-american-service-members-killed-jordan-iran-5cb774fd835a558d840ae91263037489.
[20] Tara Copp, Abdulrahman Zeyad, and Lolita C. Baldor, “US Hits Hard at Militias in Iraq and Syria, Retaliating for Fatal Drone Attack,” Associated Press, February 6, 2024, https://apnews.com/article/attack-military-iran-iraq-houthis-229a735edbb7759ba9ade543013917df.
[21] Raffi Berg, Tom Spender, and Jonathan Beale, “Why Have Israel and Iran Attacked Each Other?,” BBC, April 19, 2024, https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-68811276; Kareem Chehayeb and Albert Aji, “Israeli Strike on Iran’s Consulate in Syria Killed 2 Generals and 5 Other Officers, Iran Says,” Associated Press, April 2, 2024, https://apnews.com/article/israel-syria-airstrike-iranian-embassy-edca34c52d38c8bc57281e4ebf33b240.
[22] Berg, Spender, and Beale, “Why Have Israel and Iran Attacked Each Other?”; Jon Gambrell and Josef Federman, “Israel, Iran Play Down Apparent Israeli Strike. The Muted Responses Could Calm Tensions — for Now,” Associated Press, April 19, 2024, https://apnews.com/article/iran-israel-mideast-tensions-4-19-2024-a7ccbae2e2844bab089e8e4377a24ddb.
[23] Berg, Spender, and Beale, “Why Have Israel and Iran Attacked Each Other?”; Jon Gambrell and Josef Federman, “Israel, Iran Play Down Apparent Israeli Strike. The Muted Responses Could Calm Tensions — for Now,” Associated Press, April 19, 2024, https://apnews.com/article/iran-israel-mideast-tensions-4-19-2024-a7ccbae2e2844bab089e8e4377a24ddb.
[24] Chantal da Silva, “Netanyahu’s Postwar Plan for Gaza Reflects Difficult Balancing Act,” NBC News, February 24, 2024, https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/netanyahus-postwar-plan-gaza-reflects-difficult-balancing-act-experts-rcna140222.
[25] Katie Lobosco, Tami Luhby and Brian Fung, “Here’s What’s in the Foreign Aid Package for Ukraine, Israel,” CNN, April 24, 2024, https://www.cnn.com/2024/04/17/politics/ukraine-israel-foreign-aid-bill/index.html; C. Todd Lopez, “Supplemental Bill Becomes Law, Provides Billions in Aid for Ukraine, Israel, Taiwan,” Department of Defense News, April 24, 2024, https://www.defense.gov/News/News-Stories/Article/Article/3754718/supplemental-bill-becomes-law-provides-billions-in-aid-for-ukraine-israel-taiwan/.
[26] John Hudson, “U.S. Signs Off on More Bombs, Warplanes for Israel,” Washington Post, March 29, 2024, https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2024/03/29/us-weapons-israel-gaza-war/.
© 2024 John Whitehead. All rights reserved.
Peacemaking for Life 
John, I like your article as far as it goes. It’s fact based with the sources cited. (Though I think you should have also cited that the Lancet, Ralph Nader & perhaps others have estimated a much higher number of deaths than the Gaza Health Ministry, whose figures have not been updated for many months.)
But I do think you would have done an even greater service to readers if you had put October 7 in historical context, however brief; Israel likes to pretend the history of this war (really, a massacre) began (and ended) 10/7/2023.
Additionally, ironically, I would say that your article was too balanced. A balanced article is appropriate when the parties’ guilt is relatively equal. This simply is not the case. After decades of provocation, Hamas wrongfully murdered 1000 & also took hostages. Israel, however, has been engaged in ethnic cleansing of Palestinians since the 1940s, has been kidnapping, holding without trial, and torturing Palestinians for decades, has throughout its history conducted itself as an apartheid ethnostate, and is currently in the process of committing genocide against over 2,000,000 civilians, attempting to carpet bomb, starve, dehydrate, and deprive them of medical care to the point of death. The World Court has held that allegations of genocide are plausible (15 judges out of 17 concurring). Israel’s Prime Minister & Cabinet Ministers throughout this massacre have repeatedly expressed statements evidencing genocidal intent. There is no comparison between the evils on both sides. It’s not a case of both sides are relatively equally wrong & powerful & need to work things out.
Also, US complicity in Israel’s crimes would have been appropriate to highlight, along with the buying of politicians by the Israeli lobby, particularly AIPAC.
But I do appreciate whatever you did do. Most pro-life persons expressing an opinion do not admit or refer to any facts favorable to Palestinians, and I am glad you do that much. Still, I really hope you beef up your articles so that (again, ironically enough) they are less balanced, because the facts themselves are not balanced, but weigh very, very, very much more heavily in favor of the Palestinians. So paradoxically, an unbalanced article would be far more fair.
Thanks, Ross Heckmann